February 28, 2011

Keeping Score: 2010 Recap

Every so often, I go back and evaluate my ability to predict DRTV success or failure. I do that by checking my predictions against the best scorecard I know, my True Top 50, and now that I've posted my True Top 50 for all of 2010, it's time to evaluate last year. Here's how I did:

[NOTE: Links go to my original review for each campaign.]

GOT IT WRONG

  1. Slim Ts (No. 7) - This one caused me to re-think masculinity in America. Apparently, the "metros" are winning and making guys like me more "retro" than ever before.

  2. EZ Cracker (No. 10) - This one taught me something important: Egg products have higher-than-average odds of success on DRTV.

  3. Perfect Situp (No. 16) - I could wriggle out of this one since it's clear this marketer spends to support its fitness line. But to be perfectly honest, I thought this one would bomb horribly and disappear forever.

  4. Perfect Fit Button (No. 28) - Simply put: I was wrong. Very wrong, as it turns out.

  5. Crazy Critters (No. 33) - This was just poor thinking on my part. I don't own a dog, so I had no reason to voice such a strong opinion on the item, especially when it met five of my seven criteria.

  6. Belly Burner (No. 42) - Credibility was obviously not a problem for this item, but I still think the claims are too risky.

  7. Total Pillow (No. 48) - I already ate crow on this one, but I'll do it again: I totally underestimated this one.

GOT IT RIGHT

  1. iRenew (No. 1) - As admitted earlier, a "back-handed" success prediction.

  2. Shake Weight (No. 4)

  3. Heel Tastic (No. 12)

  4. Sobakawa Pillow (No. 13) - I had doubts, but I gave it a 5 out of 7 anyway.

  5. Cami Secret (No. 19)

  6. Sonic Pet Trainer (No. 21)

  7. Jupiter Jack (No. 25)

  8. Chef Basket (No. 37)

  9. Bark Off (No. 39)

  10. Uglu (No. 40)

  11. Perfect Brownie (No. 44)

So that makes my official prediction record 11 of 18 (61%).

As for the other campaigns on the Top 50, I did not include them in this evaluation for one of the following reasons:

  • I missed them (e.g. Mister Steamy, Flirty Girl Fitness).

  • I don't write about the category (e.g. Sept. 11th Commemorative, Live Butterfly Garden).

  • I recused myself due to inside information (e.g. Depil Silk, Wonder File).

  • They are more than two years old (e.g. Bender Ball, ShamWow!).

  • I was "on the fence" (e.g. Criss Angel, Mighty Fixit, Pajama Jeans).

So there you have it. Not bad ... but not great, either. In any case, I learned a lot last year, and the industry keeps evolving.

1 comment:

  1. I think Jordan is a lot more right than his numbers indicate as several of the "successes" were not all that successful as driving direct TV sales, they were driving retail sales at a loss.

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