Every so often, I go back and evaluate my ability to predict DRTV success or failure. I do that by checking my predictions against the best scorecard I know, my True Top 50, and now that I've posted my True Top 50 for all of 2010, it's time to evaluate last year. Here's how I did:
[NOTE: Links go to my original review for each campaign.]
GOT IT WRONG
- Slim Ts (No. 7) - This one caused me to re-think masculinity in America. Apparently, the "metros" are winning and making guys like me more "retro" than ever before.
- EZ Cracker (No. 10) - This one taught me something important: Egg products have higher-than-average odds of success on DRTV.
- Perfect Situp (No. 16) - I could wriggle out of this one since it's clear this marketer spends to support its fitness line. But to be perfectly honest, I thought this one would bomb horribly and disappear forever.
- Perfect Fit Button (No. 28) - Simply put: I was wrong. Very wrong, as it turns out.
- Crazy Critters (No. 33) - This was just poor thinking on my part. I don't own a dog, so I had no reason to voice such a strong opinion on the item, especially when it met five of my seven criteria.
- Belly Burner (No. 42) - Credibility was obviously not a problem for this item, but I still think the claims are too risky.
- Total Pillow (No. 48) - I already ate crow on this one, but I'll do it again: I totally underestimated this one.
GOT IT RIGHT
- iRenew (No. 1) - As admitted earlier, a "back-handed" success prediction.
- Shake Weight (No. 4)
- Heel Tastic (No. 12)
- Sobakawa Pillow (No. 13) - I had doubts, but I gave it a 5 out of 7 anyway.
- Cami Secret (No. 19)
- Sonic Pet Trainer (No. 21)
- Jupiter Jack (No. 25)
- Chef Basket (No. 37)
- Bark Off (No. 39)
- Uglu (No. 40)
- Perfect Brownie (No. 44)
So that makes my official prediction record 11 of 18 (61%).
As for the other campaigns on the Top 50, I did not include them in this evaluation for one of the following reasons:
- I missed them (e.g. Mister Steamy, Flirty Girl Fitness).
- I don't write about the category (e.g. Sept. 11th Commemorative, Live Butterfly Garden).
- I recused myself due to inside information (e.g. Depil Silk, Wonder File).
- They are more than two years old (e.g. Bender Ball, ShamWow!).
- I was "on the fence" (e.g. Criss Angel, Mighty Fixit, Pajama Jeans).
So there you have it. Not bad ... but not great, either. In any case, I learned a lot last year, and the industry keeps evolving.
