Description: A cupcake pan
Main Pitch: "Your favorite candy in the center of a cupcake"
Main Offer: $19.95 for a pan, recipe book, decorating squeezer and 30 custom liners
Bonus: Second complete set (just pay separate P&H
Producer: The Schwartz Group
Prediction: On the fence
I'm of two minds on this one. My positive mind loves the commercial (especially that clever jingle* and the equally clever name "sweet stick") and finds the idea of cupcakes with a surprise inside very appealing. It also recalls that Allstar's Big Top Cupcake featured just this combination of factors. That is: A cool twist, a focus on kids and lots of mouth-watering fun.
My negative mind recalls that, with the lone exception of the Allstar project just mentioned, this particular treat hasn't done well in short form. In December of 2010, National Express tested Clever Cupcakes, which went nowhere. Then in April of last year, the Edison Nation/Hutton-Miller team tested the Upcake Cupcake Pan, and that hasn't been heard from again, either.
In general, this category is very hard to predict. I can spin a hypothesis that explains Perfect Brownie, but I can't make that hypothesis fit Bake Pop (or the Big Top Cupcake, for that matter). It seems success or failure is based on the whim of the consumer at the moment, and that's not very 'DR.' Maybe it's just another 1-in-50 category? That is, a category (like hair accessories) where the odds are about 1 in 50 -- so dice-rollers beware!
* To my knowledge, this is the first time in recent history that a jingle has been used for a baking item (albeit a kid-oriented baking item). Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.