March 14, 2013

My 2012 Track Record

It's time for me to do a little self-accounting and share my track record for 2012. In the calendar year, I made 133 firm predictions. That is, I said the project would be a bomb, a hit, likely to succeed or unlikely to succeed.

For these purposes, I did not include any project I was 'on the fence' about, and I did not include projects in my Weekly Round-Up feature (unless I made a firm call). Here are the results:

Bombs (14). Accuracy rate: 100%.

Fourteen of the 14 projects I predicted would be bombs failed to make it onto the True Top Spenders list for the year.

Hits (1). Accuracy rate: 0%.

In the entire year, I liked only one project enough to declare it a future hit, the HurryCane. However, it does not appear on my annual list. Sources tell me the campaign has spent a lot of money on shorter-format media, but I only include 120s in my analysis.

Unlikely to Succeed (103). Accuracy rate: 92%.

This was my favorite prediction by far. The statistic is fairly impressive until you realize: a) It's easy to predict failure when most projects fail, and b) the eight I got wrong include some of the biggest hits of the year.

My two biggest embarrassments are Olde Brooklyn Lantern and Wax Vac.

Other ones I got wrong: Flex-Able Hose, Bell + Howell iScope, Bell + Howell Solar Charger, Insta Bulb, Diamond X4 and Mr. Lid.

Likely to Succeed (15). Accuracy rate: 27%.

Ouch. Apparently picking winners is my worst skill. Of course, it is also the hardest thing to do in this business. Actually, if I had invested in every project I liked (16 total) my success rate would be exactly one in four, which is a great track record in this business! (Nice try, right?)

The four projects I liked that made it onto the True Top Spenders list were Trendy Top, Perfect Tortilla, X-Hose and Tag Away.

And there you have it: My track record for last year. Let's see if I can do better in 2013.

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