July 27, 2010

Interpreting the News

According to the Associated Press:

With unemployment stuck near 10 percent and the stock market having wiped out gains made early this year, Americans are skittish about spending. A continuing stream of sobering economic data — from disappointing job figures in May and June to weak housing numbers — is increasing worries that the economic recovery is stalling just as government stimulus programs are disappearing.

One component of the Consumer Confidence Index, which measures how people feel now about the economy now, declined to 26.1, from 26.8. The other barometer, which measures respondent's outlook over the next six months, declined to 66.6, from 72.7 last month.

The index — which measures how shoppers feel about business conditions, the job market and the next six months — had been recovering fitfully since hitting an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009.

The full story is here.

I asked Dick Wechsler, CEO of Lockard & Wechsler Direct, for his take on what appeared to be sobering news for our industry. I asked: How will this affect our business this quarter and next?

Dick replied:

My feeling is that this is old information. The pickup in response that we’ve seen since early July is a real indication that consumer confidence is finally on the rise. While the media market is a leading economic indicator, consumer confidence is a lagging one.

Over the past year, the DRTV world has been caught in a double whammy. High rates from a robust media market, an early indicator of recovery, coupled with low consumer response from a lack of confidence has made it extremely difficult to scale campaigns. July brought a major improvement in consumer response.

While rates remain high, improved confidence and response have allowed more campaigns to achieve efficient scale.

Here's hoping this positive trend continues.