March 05, 2014

Old Gold: A Closer Look

(Click to see the full list)

My quick analysis yesterday of the "Old Gold" posts on this blog caused me to start thinking (always dangerous) and eventually prompted me to take a much closer look at the track record for such items. The analysis I link to above is the result. I found it quite edifying, and I trust you will as well.

One key takeaway: If you eliminate tests that are "TBD" and only count once, taking the most positive result, items that were re-tried multiple times (e.g. Magic Lint Roller, tried five times!), the record for Old Gold items is 5 for 24. That amounts to a 1 in 5 hit rate, which is twice as good as I guessed it would be and not so mediocre after all.

(Update: Thanks to a few emails from friends, I have since added four more items to the list, which improves the record to 6 for 24 -- a 1 in 4 hit rate.)

On a side note, I found several other items on this blog that were technically "Old Gold" but had enough of a twist not to include on my list. Perhaps some other time I will study those items and evaluate that related strategy for generating hits.

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