If a DR marketer has an unexpected hit, that marketer and the rest of the industry will start to believe they have discovered a “hot” category and follow with a string of failures. I call it the "Siren" effect. Israeli psychologist Daniel Kahneman called it something else, and his work on the subject helped earn him a Nobel Prize.
To read more about how Kahneman's work sheds light on a common error in judgment, click here and read this month's Field Report.