Brand Polls Criticized At Last

Advertising Age, the publication of record for advertising executives, published a piece by Matthew Creamer July 23 that questions the worth of brand opinion polls. It's about time.

Creamer illustrates the problem with these polls by taking a closer look at a company that has topped Harris Interactive's "best brands" poll since 2000: Sony Corp. He writes: "In recent years ... [the company] has stood helpless as Apple eats its lunch in the portable-music-player category it created; as it was forced to recall 10 million defective laptop batteries; and as its next-generation video-game console [the PS3] flopped like a sumo wrestler." Yet when people are asked which brands they consider best, Sony continues to top the list because of its near-universal brand awareness.

Creamer has hit upon a deeper truth, something direct-response marketers have known for more than a century: Awareness does not equal sales. In fact, as the Sony example shows, there is often no correlation between the two.

Of course, Creamer's answer to this flawed opinion poll is a better opinion poll that measures purchase intent or brand loyalty. But that's no solution, either. Ask a focus group if they would pay $20 for your new product, and a majority will likely say yes. Ask them to open their wallets on the way out and plunk down $20 for one of your product samples, and watch that majority mysteriously evaporate. Consumers are famous for saying one thing -- and then buying another.

Perhaps someday the larger advertising world will realize what DR marketers already know: It makes little sense to measure opinions when it's really sales you're after.

New Items: Seal-Tite, MXZ Wrench, The Tornado and more

Here's my report on the latest DRTV items to air. As described in an earlier post, I am adding a D7 Score to each new item I cover. My intention is to check on items 90 days after they debut to see if my score holds up as a predictor of what will succeed.

1. SEAL-TITE ($19.95) is a tire-repair kit under the Simoniz brand. When you get a flat tire, you’re supposed to squeeze this liquid into the air valve, re-inflate the tire and start driving. The liquid rolls around and seals the leak from within. The main claim: “Get back on the road in 10 minutes” without having to use a lug wrench or spare tire. The offer includes a portable air compressor with inflation adaptors and a digital pressure gauge. The bonus is a roadside safety kit with warning triangle, flashlight and safety vest (just pay S&H). This is a Billy Mays commercial. www.BuySealTite.com
D7 Score: 6 out of 7   (What's "D7"?)
Strengths: This item is a unique, mass market product that solves a problem. It's also priced right, easy to explain and appeals to people 50+. Oh, and it has Billy Mays!
Weaknesses: The idea of using a liquid to repair a tire is lacking in believability. Also, tire gauges, air compressors and safety kits aren't very exciting.

2. MXZ POWER WRENCH ($19.95) is an adjustable wrench that firmly grips and turns different-size nuts and bolts. It also features a built-in wire cutter. The main claim: “Locks on to any nut or bolt and never slips.” The offer includes an extra-large, interchangeable jaw for pipe fittings, etc. The bonus is a pipe-cutting jaw and a carrying case. Then they also include a five–piece screwdriver set with LED flashlight and telescopic magnetized retriever attachment (just pay S&H). This is an Emson product. No URL
D7 Score: 5 out of 7
Strengths: This item is a line extension of the MXZ Pocket Saw, a 2006 DRTV hit. It's mass market and priced right. It's also easily explained, credible and could appeal to consumers 50+.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately, this new tool isn’t nearly as unique as its predecessor, and it doesn’t solve a real problem. The commercial doesn't offer a compelling reason to buy this product and use it instead of your wrench of choice.

3. DRIP-TITE ($19.95) is an expandable tray that catches drips from underneath sinks. The idea is that you’re protecting your home from mold. The main claim: “Half of all kitchens have mold even if you can’t see it or smell it.” The offer is buy one, get one free. www.DripTite.com
D7 Score: 4 out of 7
Strengths: This item is unique and mass market. It's also easily explained and credible.
Weaknesses: The problem this product solves can’t be seen, and that's a major challenge. The offer is weak as well: It's hard to sell a piece of plastic for $20 and have people think they're getting a good deal. Lastly, the idea that a plastic tray prevents mold is lacking in credibility.

4. THE TORNADO (Free Trial, Just Pay S&H)) is a device that transfers files between computers. The main claim: “The world’s only pocket-sized data transfer computer.” The offer is to try it free for 30 days, just pay $9.95 S&H. (The actual price is $49.95.) There’s no bonus, but there is a challenge/guarantee: “If you can network two PCs and transfer a file between them faster and easier, [the inventor] will pay you $100,000.” www.TryTheTornado.com
D7 Score: 4 out of 7
Strengths: This is a cool item that won an award for “best gadget.” It's unique and credible, and it appeals to the mass market in the sense that most people have computers these days. They also do a great job of explaining the item.
Weaknesses: Although I can see this selling well in the techie niche market, it is not a DRTV item. Tech items skew younger; DRTV buyers skew older. Second, it solves an infrequent problem for most people. The opening talks about buying a new computer and having to transfer the files. How often does that happen? Third, the ultimate price ($50) is too high for DRTV buyers.

5. DREAM PETS ($29.99) is a lifelike plush pet that looks like it’s sleeping – and breathing. The main claim: “So realistic you might expect them to wake up when you touch them.” There are two versions: a golden retriever puppy and an orange tabby kitten. The offer includes adoption papers as well as a collar, carrying case and brush. The bonus is a fleece bed, just pay S&H. This is a Blue Moon commercial. www.BuyDreamPets.com
D7 Score: 4 out of 7
Strengths: This item is unqiue, easy to explain and it faces no credibility issues. It is positioned as a pet for people or kids who don't want the responsibility of owning a pet. But I think it will appeal to pet owners who like cutesy pet things: the kind of people who put sweaters on their little dogs or have a collection of painted porcelain cat plates. Luckily, the DRTV audience is likely to have a higher percentage of these people than the general population, since it skews older and female.
Weaknesses: Unluckily, the 'cutesy pet' market is a niche market, so the campaign is only likely to work in a limited way. Also, the item doesn't solve a real problem and it's expensive for DRTV.

Sources: “New Spots for Week Ending 7/20/07,” IMS (1-4); "Vol. XVI, No. 39-B, 07/20/07," Jordan Whitney (5)

Playing the Odds in Marketing

Laura Ries, daughter and partner of Al Ries and my favorite blogress, has an interesting post on playing the odds in marketing. She writes that while it’s true there are no absolutes, “the laws of branding work most of the time.” Yet “people only want to look for the exceptions.”

This echoes a quote from her father that I used to have hanging on the door of my office:

“[In advertising] you can always find at least one exception to every rule. You have a choice. You can either live by the rules and accept the possibility that you might miss an opportunity because you didn’t break the rules. Or you can live a life of anarchy.”

In meetings about potential new DRTV products, I’ve taken to articulating this point in basketball terminology. I talk about “lay-ups,” “three pointers” and so on. Want to market a new $19.99 kitchen gadget on DRTV? That’s a lay-up. Convinced we can market a $50 iPod accessory on DRTV? You’re slinging the ball underhand from the half-court line, my friend.

I’ve found this language helps our team focus and prioritize, as opposed to just getting offended that I’m down on their idea. And it accurately explains the challenge we face. Whenever we’ve had dry spells with no hits on the air, it hasn’t been because we were taking shots and missing. It’s been because we were taking half-court shots and missing.

The Divine Seven

Update: The results are in! My success rate using the D7 to pick winners is one in three, while the industry average is one in eight. Seems the criteria really work. See my April 7, 2008 post for more.

How important is marketing to the success of a DRTV product? The answer is “very important” – but only if you start out with a product that’s right for the DRTV market.

The best marketing in the world isn’t going to sell a product that lacks inherent appeal to DRTV buyers. That means DRTV marketers need to use very specific criteria when deciding which new product ideas they will spend time, money and resources bringing to market.

During my career, I’ve compiled a master list of 14 of these criteria. Of these, I believe seven are so critical to the success of any DRTV product that I call them the “The Divine Seven.” In my opinion, the odds of having a hit DRTV campaign are highest when your product is:

1. UNIQUE. Simply put, it must be different and new. That means it must be something most people haven’t seen it before, or something most people think they haven’t seen it before.
2. MASS MARKET. It must appeal to a large enough market. Niche products seldom succeed.
3. PROBLEM SOLVING. It has to solve a perceived problem that doesn’t already have a good-enough solution. Aspirational products just don’t play on DRTV.
4. PRICED RIGHT. It should be $20 or less. Since DRTV purchases are impulse purchases, it’s very hard to make anything priced above $20 work. The price should also meet or exceed the perceived value of the product. DRTV buyers demand a bargain.
5. EASILY EXPLAINED. People need to be able to understand what it does quickly. The best way to accomplish this is to select products that are simple and highly demonstrable.
6. AGE APPROPRIATE. It should appeal to people over the age of 50, or at least not exclude this group. That’s because the typical DRTV buyer is 50+.
7. CREDIBLE. People must believe it works as advertised. Many DRTV items that meet the previous six criteria fail here because the promise they make just isn’t believable.

I remember these criteria with the following sentence: "A successful DRTV product is a UNIQUE, MASS MARKET PROBLEM SOLVER that’s PRICED RIGHT, EASILY EXPLAINED, AGE APPROPRIATE and CREDIBLE."

The middle five are the most critical. That's because they're also the most objective. Whether a product is unique enough or credible enough for DRTV viewers is a matter of opinion (before the results come in). On the other hand, objective research can determine that a product is niche instead of mass market, and history has shown that such products are highly unlikely to succeed on DRTV. In fact, I'll go on record and say a product that misses in any one of the middle five categories is highly unlikely to succeed.

Since January of this year, I’ve been keeping track of how new items from the IMS and Jordan Whitney reports stack up against these criteria. My goal is to evaluate 100 DRTV products before I know whether they are hits, and then see how my criteria hold up. Will items that meet all seven criteria become hits as expected? Or will items that defy my criteria become hits, and cause me to re-evaluate how I screen products? Stay tuned!

In the meantime, I’ll be adding a “D7 Score” to each product I cover in my New Items report. Once I reach 100, I’ll share the results.

New Items: Awesome Auger, Craft-Lite Cutter, Series V Knife and more

Here’s my new report on the latest DRTV spots to air:

1. AWESOME AUGER ($19.95) is a long power drill attachment used for digging holes in the garden. The main claim: “Takes the hard work out of yard work.” The offer includes the “Ground Auger,” a shorter version for planting bulbs. The bonuses are the “Weed Auger,” which rips up weeds (just pay S&H), and a “power extender” (just pay S&H). Then they throw in the power drill (just pay S&H). This is an SAS Group product. Billy Mays is the spokesperson. www.BuyTheAuger.com
Comments: Might work in a limited way. Items in the gardening category face two major challenges: the category is seasonal and the market is niche. Still, this particular product may catch on among gardening enthusiasts, and the offer is huge – maybe too huge. A free power drill is just too good to be true. Southern Tools tried it as a bonus for their Bit Shooter product, and it shot the credibility of their offer and led to high levels of customer dissatisfaction. After all, what are the chances a DRTV company will ship you a quality power drill for free? Of course, the drill isn’t really free, which is another problem. Notice every bonus item that comes with this product carries a separate S&H charge. That’s going to kill a lot of sales.

2. YOUTHOLOGY ($39.99) is a wrinkle cream. The magic ingredient is “Active Rejuvatin.” The main claim: “Now you can make the visible signs of aging vanish instantly and look 10 years younger in just 90 seconds.” www.TryYouthology.com
Comments: There is nothing to distinguish this product from the other wrinkle creams on the market.

3. PET FLEX (Free Trial) is a dietary supplement for pets. You mix it in with the pet’s food and it improves joint health. The main claim: “Restore your pet’s active life.” No URL
Comments: Unlikely to succeed. People think of their pets as their children. They aren’t going to feed them something unknown without a lot of reassuring information. The commercial doesn’t offer it, and there is no Web site to visit for more information.

4. RACK & ROLL ($21.95) is a paper towel dispenser. It hangs over the back of a door. The bonus is a paper towel holder. www.TheRackAndRoll.com
Comments: This product doesn't solve a painful problem, and the offer is weak.

5. CLOSET DOUBLER ($12.99) is Telebrands’ Tap ‘N Turn, a space-saving device for closets, under a new name. It's a hanging device that connects to the side of a closet and drops down, so clothes hang vertically. It requires installation, but the process is just "tap" (goes into wall) and "turn" (handle screws it in). The offer is buy one, get one free. The bonus is a “rod unit” that’s double-sided and connects to the center of a closet rod (just pay S&H). www.ClosetDoubler.com
Comments: Same challenges as the original. It doesn't look like a quality piece, and it lacks credibility. People won't believe it's strong enough if the installation is so easy.

6. TOILET TUNES ($29.95) is a digital sound machine that automatically plays music or nature sounds the moment you lift your toilet lid. The idea is to conceal embarrassing bathroom noises. The offer includes a peel-and-stick sensor that goes under the toilet lid and the receiver/sound machine. The bonus is a spa pillow for the bathtub. www.GetToiletTunes.com
Comments: This is an interesting twist on Sharper Image’s Sound Soother device. But I don’t see how it’s going to cover bathroom noises. Also, it doesn’t do anything a small radio or CD player couldn’t do except go on automatically.

7. CRAFT-LITE CUTTER ($19.99) is a lighted cutting device for photos and craft projects. It has interchangeable blades for different styles of cuts, and a swing-out ruler. The offer includes three blades: a straight edge, a wave edge and a zig-zag edge. The bonus is three additional blades (scoring, stamp and perforation). This is a Merchant Media product and a Blue Moon Studios commercial. www.CraftLiteCutter.com
Comments: Unlikely to succeed. As a practical item, it doesn’t solve a big enough problem. Scissors have been a “good enough” solution for decades for a reason. As a craft item, it becomes a niche product.

8. SERIES V KNIFE ($19.99) is a 12-piece knife set. The main claim: These are “laser honed” knives so no matter what you cut, “they’ll never lose their edge.” The offer includes a 10-inch serrated slicer, an 8-inch flex chopper, a set of steak knives, an “ultimate kitchen knife,” and a multi-use knife that peels, grates, slices and serves. The bonus is a Japanese Santoku knife. This is a Chef Tony commercial. No URL
Comments: Unlikely to succeed. Kitchen knives are a tried-and-true DRTV category, and they lend themselves to some great demos. Chef Tony has them all down pat, so the spot is visually exciting. The problem is that the category is super-crowded these days. Go to any discount store, and you’ll find knife sets of every nationality and variety. The Ginsu days are long gone. So while this set is a great value and has a few interesting highlights – I especially like the multi-use knife – there’s not enough here to motivate people off the couch.

Sources: “New Spots for Week Ending 7/13/07,” IMS (1-5); "Vol. XVI, No. 38-B, 07/13/07," Jordan Whitney (6-8)