Keeping Score: 2010 Recap

Every so often, I go back and evaluate my ability to predict DRTV success or failure. I do that by checking my predictions against the best scorecard I know, my True Top 50, and now that I've posted my True Top 50 for all of 2010, it's time to evaluate last year. Here's how I did:

[NOTE: Links go to my original review for each campaign.]

GOT IT WRONG

1. Slim Ts (No. 7) - This one caused me to re-think masculinity in America. Apparently, the "metros" are winning and making guys like me more "retro" than ever before.


2. EZ Cracker (No. 10) - This one taught me something important: Egg products have higher-than-average odds of success on DRTV.


3. Perfect Situp (No. 16) - I could wriggle out of this one since it's clear this marketer spends to support its fitness line. But to be perfectly honest, I thought this one would bomb horribly and disappear forever.


4. Perfect Fit Button (No. 28) - Simply put: I was wrong. Very wrong, as it turns out.


5. Crazy Critters (No. 33) - This was just poor thinking on my part. I don't own a dog, so I had no reason to voice such a strong opinion on the item, especially when it met five of my seven criteria.


6. Belly Burner (No. 42) - Credibility was obviously not a problem for this item, but I still think the claims are too risky.


7. Total Pillow (No. 48) - I already ate crow on this one, but I'll do it again: I totally underestimated this one.

GOT IT RIGHT

1. iRenew (No. 1) - As admitted earlier, a "back-handed" success prediction.


2. Shake Weight (No. 4)


3. Heel Tastic (No. 12)


4. Sobakawa Pillow (No. 13) - I had doubts, but I gave it a 5 out of 7 anyway.


5. Cami Secret (No. 19)


6. Sonic Pet Trainer (No. 21)


7. Jupiter Jack (No. 25)


8. Chef Basket (No. 37)


9. Bark Off (No. 39)


10. Uglu (No. 40)


11. Perfect Brownie (No. 44)

So that makes my official prediction record 11 of 18 (61%).

As for the other campaigns on the Top 50, I did not include them in this evaluation for one of the following reasons:

• I missed them (e.g. Mister Steamy, Flirty Girl Fitness).


• I don't write about the category (e.g. Sept. 11th Commemorative, Live Butterfly Garden).


• I recused myself due to inside information (e.g. Depil Silk, Wonder File).


• They are more than two years old (e.g. Bender Ball, ShamWow!).


• I was "on the fence" (e.g. Criss Angel, Mighty Fixit, Pajama Jeans).

So there you have it. Not bad ... but not great, either. In any case, I learned a lot last year, and the industry keeps evolving.

SciMark Report from February Response

My latest column is now live on the Response magazine Website. Reviews include: Miyashi, Greenbeam and Lipstick Remix [a].

One important correction: In the Miyashi review, I attributed the Sobakawa Pillow to the wrong marketer. The line in question should have read: "Media Enterprise's Sobakawa Pillow."

True Top Marketers of the Year

According to my (just published) True Top 50 of 2010, here are the true top marketers of the year (in order):

1. IdeaVillage. Andy Khubani's firm moves up from No. 2 to No. 1 this year with a staggering nine True Top 50 hits. They are: Yoshi Blade, Slim Ts, Criss Angel Magic Kit, Depil Silk, HD Vision Ultras, Prayer Cross, Finishing Touch Jewel, MicroForce Max and Uglu. Wow! (As an aside, unlike last year where I made a distinction, I am counting "acquisitions" in the rankings this year. That's because acquiring hits has become a standard industry practice.)


2. Telebrands. The godfather of the industry and its current ambassador, AJ Khubani delivered no less than seven Top 50 hits in 2010: Heel Tastic, Pasta Boat, Jupiter Jack, Perfect Fit Button, Crazy Critters, Chef Basket and Bark Off.


3. Allstar. No. 1 last year with four Top 50 hits, this efficient hit machine rolled out another four Top 50 winners in 2010: Wonder File, Perfect Brownie, Topsy Turvy and Kangaroo Keeper.

Three other companies tied for fourth with two Top 50 hits each. They are:

• Emson with EZ Cracker (a top 10 hit) and the Sonic Pet Trainer


• Media Enterprises with the Sobakawa Pillow and Mighty Fixit


• Hampton Direct with Pajama Jeans and Total Pillow

Congratulations to everyone on a great year!

True Top Producers of the Year

Correction: The first version of this posting only attributed two Top 50 hits to Concepts TV. When the change was made, the firm's ranking improved to No. 4.

According to my True Top 50 of 2010, here are the true top producers of the year (in order):

1. Blue Moon Studios. For the second year in a row, Fred Vanore's firm tops the list with no less than seven True Top 50 hits. They are: Yoshi Blade, Wonder File, Prayer Cross, Finishing Touch Jewel, MicroForce Max, Bark Off and Topsy Turvy.


2. Hutton-Miller. John Miller & Peter Hutton's creative crew rise from No. 3 to No. 2 this year with four True Top 50 hits, including the No. 1 hit of the year -- iRenew. The others are: Mister Steamy, Mighty Fixit and Page Brite.


3. Adcomm. One of the most liked and most experienced people in the business, Don Braca (and his talented team) shone in 2010 with three True Top 50 hits: the Sobakawa Pillow, Potty Patch and Crazy Critters.


4. Concepts TV. Collette Liantonio and the lovely ladies (and, uh, guys) at Concepts also delivered three Top 50 hits in 2010. They proved me wrong with both Perfect Fit Button and Total Pillow, and did so well with Pajama Jeans it made No. 34 despite launching at the end of the year.


5. Sullivan Productions. Sully, Arwen, Carla and the crew had two items in the Top 25 this time around: Heel Tastic and Jupiter Jack.

Congratulations to you all!

The True Top 50 of 2010

After careful analysis and research, I am finally posting my True Top 50 for all of 2010 ...

Now come all the caveats!

First, as before, the two key metrics used for this ranking are frequency and spending on the 75 rated national cable networks, and spending is given twice the weight of frequency. This is done to prevent campaigns that run a lot on the "cheaper" networks from getting an artificially high value.

Second, any spot shorter than two minutes was excluded from the analysis. To get to what's "true," we remove formats clearly designed to lose money on TV. Of course, it is impossible to separate out 120s that purposefully lose money, or we would do that as well.

Third, we applied several filters to get a list that is more relevant to the specific focus of this blog. For those who don't know what that is, or haven't really thought about it, it's short-form DRTV campaigns for hard goods (i.e. gadgets) that, if successful, will end up on retail shelves.

As in the past, that means we exclude campaigns for services instead of products. For this annual list and going forward, I have also started filtering out the following:

1. Long-form campaigns airing short-form support


2. "Hybrid" campaigns involving set budgets and/or "soft" metrics such as cost-per-lead

Although these types of DRTV marketing are certainly "true" in the broader sense, what I'm really saying is these campaigns are beyond my interest and expertise. For example, I have no way of determining whether a new Proactiv campaign will meet Guthy-Renker's definition of success, and I wouldn't be interested in writing about that even if I did.

All of these caveats and filters come from my dissatisfaction with the other rankings out there. To me, a top 50 ranking is lacking if half the year's hits are pushed off the list by companies who spend for reasons other than profitable CPOs. (Of course, even with my best efforts, this will be unavoidable to some degree.)

As always, I welcome your criticisms and suggestions for improvement.